Sector Snap: Chinese Web Gaming Dips
Author: From:http://www.buyfastgold.com/
NEW YORK -
Most Chinese online gaming stocks declined Friday after a Citi Investment Research analyst predicted online games - and subscription games in particular - will be hurt by recent record snowstorms in China.
American Depositary Shares of Shanda Interactive Entertainment Ltd. (nasdaq: SNDA - news - people ) fell 98 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $27.89.
In a note to investors, Citi analyst Alicia Yap said she expects Shanda to be more insulated from the impact of snowstorms than others because most of its users play games at home, the company has seasonally strong casual games and its user base is diverse.
Also, it uses the "free-to-play" model, under which users pay for things like items within a game instead of being charged a subscription fee for gameplay. This lets Shanda run post-holiday promotions and incentives to encourage user spending, she said.
Still, Yap - who rates Shanda "Buy" - lowered her first-quarter earnings and revenue estimates for the company.
Meanwhile, competitor Perfect World Co.'s ADS declined 28 cents to $23.40.
In a note, Yap reiterated her "Buy" rating for the stock and said she lowered her first-quarter revenue estimate "to be conservative."
Like Shanda, Perfect World uses a free-to-play model, and Yap thinks it will see higher revenue in March and a limited total impact from the storms.
The9 Ltd. (nasdaq: NCTY - news - people ), which runs the popular online subscription game "World of Warcraft" in China, saw its ADS declined 36 cents to $17.85 in afternoon trading.
Yap, who rates the stock "Hold," lowered her estimates for its first quarter to account for a possible performance impact due to storms. She also said the period tends to be seasonally slower for "World of Warcraft" play due to Chinese New Year holidays.
NetEase.com Inc.'s ADS dipped 6 cents to $17.51.
Yap also thinks it's likely that NetEase's subscription games - including "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Westward Journey Series" - will suffer from the inclement weather.
Unlike The9, NetEase's first quarter tends to be seasonally strong, she said, and most of its gamers are in second-tier and third-tier cities so they're not affected as much by the holiday impact that first-tier concentrated games see.
"However, the power outages during this year's snowstorm and stalled ground transportation might have affected Internet cafe business, which would hit NetEase games; thus, we believe a quarter over quarter increase this year would be smaller than in 2007," she said.
Elsewhere in the sector, ADS of Giant Interactive Group Inc. declined 1 cent to $10.49.
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